Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cerro		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	8.5	3.7	1.44	Watch
	7.5	3.85	1.43
	8.96	4.17	1.36	Watch
	8.55	3.89	1.44	Watch
	7.2	3.8	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.14 ↓ (8.96)	3.88 ↓ (4.17)	1.43 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
11.4%

Draw
23.9%

Nacional Montevideo
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.3%

22.1%

67.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.8%

19.3%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Cerro - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cerro will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bacchia R. (G) 24. Valenzuela I. 7. Macelli A. (C) 28. Fuica N. 43. Suarez M. 30. Neira I. 32. Caceres S. 8. Miranda A. 29. Paiva S. 9. Larrosa E. 15. Cuello E.	1. Mejia L. (G) 77. Rodriguez N. 4. Coates S. (C) 29. Millan J. 27. Romero D. 8. Oliva C. 6. Boggio L. 16. Villalba Jaume L. M. 14. Lodeiro N. 19. De Los Santos J. 9. Gomez M.
Substitutes
22. Acosta F. 1. Cubero M. (G) 23. Farias M. 31. Morales B. 21. Nichele M. 10. Ocampo M. 14. Sosa E. 19. Techera F. 5. Villar M. 26. Zamurio A.	20. Carneiro G. 17. de los Santos M. 18. Ebere C. 7. Lopez N. 11. Otero R. 2. Palacios H. 33. Patino J. 10. Pereyra M. 23. Rodriguez L. 25. Suarez I. (G)
Coaches
Silva T.	Viera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Caceres S. 🟨,
45', Rodriguez N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Caceres S. ↓, Ocampo M. ↑,
46', Miranda A. ↓, Sosa E. ↑,
56', Oliva C. 🟨,
61', Lodeiro N. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
62', De Los Santos J. ↓, Otero R. ↑,
62', Cuello E. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
71', Gomez M. 🟨,
71', Suarez M. 🟨,
74', Valenzuela I. 🟥,
76', Paiva S. ↓, Villar M. ↑,
76', Macelli A. 🟨,
78', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
78', Oliva C. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
86', Romero D. ↓, Patino J. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Nacional is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 19:38. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.25	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 41.6 WWWLW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.10.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0
02.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	2:0
09.06.24	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	3:0
28.04.24	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	1:2
15.10.23	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	2:1
03.06.23	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	1:1
04.03.23	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	2:2

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