Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Milazzo		Castrumfavara

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.25	2.92
	2.25	3.35	2.87	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.83
	2.3	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.27)	3.29 ↓ (3.33)	2.86 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milazzo
40.5%

Draw
27.7%

Castrumfavara
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

27.2%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

26.3%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milazzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milazzo than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Milazzo - Castrumfavara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 1 - 0, Cassaro R. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).

In recent matches, Milazzo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castrumfavara has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Castrumfavara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5:8	-3	9
14	Castrumfavara	6	1	1	4	5:7	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milazzo
Italian Serie D - Group I
11.01.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Milazzo	2:0 ✺
03.01.26	Milazzo - Nissa	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Milazzo - ACR Messina	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Reggina - Milazzo	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Sambiase - Milazzo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTTLW
- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
11.01.26	Castrumfavara - Sambiase	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Enna - Castrumfavara	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Reggina - Castrumfavara	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Castrumfavara - Paternò	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gela - Castrumfavara	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Milazzo - Castrumfavara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide