Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 23

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Mineros de Fresnillo		Leones Negros 2

	1	X	2
	2.78	3.31	2.35	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.79	3.18	2.34
	2.93	3.43	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.93)	3.23 ↓ (3.43)	2.26 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mineros de Fresnillo
32%

Draw
28%

Leones Negros 2
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

25.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mineros de Fresnillo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Leones Negros 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mineros de Fresnillo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros 2 than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
69', 3 - 0, ⚽,
73', 🟥,
81', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Fresnillo won 2.

In recent matches, Mineros de Fresnillo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leones Negros 2 is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Leones Negros 2 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Fresnillo won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Mineros de Fresnillo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mineros de Fresnillo
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.03.26	Los Cabos United - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:2 ✺
28.02.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tigres de Álica	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Tritones Vallarta - Mineros de Fresnillo	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tecos FC	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Tuzos UAZ - Mineros de Fresnillo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWLWT
- Leones Negros 2
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Ensenada - Leones Negros 2	1:4 ✺
21.02.26	Leones Negros 2 - Zapotlanejo	3:0 ✺
16.02.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros 2	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Leones Negros 2 - La Piedad	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
25.10.25	Leones Negros 2 - Mineros de Fresnillo	2:1
26.04.25	Leones Negros 2 - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:2
08.02.25	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	2:1
05.10.24	Leones Negros 2 - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:0
23.03.24	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	1:1
21.10.23	Leones Negros 2 - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:0
07.01.23	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	1:0

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