Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 1

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Miramar Misiones		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.98	2.2
	3.2	3.03	2.23
	3.25	3.11	2.27	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.25
	3.17	2.96	2.23
	2.85	3.05	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.85)	2.99 ↓ (3.05)	2.25 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miramar Misiones
29.2%

Draw
30.4%

River Plate Montevideo
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.4%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.3%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Burruzo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miramar Misiones won 2.

Miramar Misiones has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

River Plate is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Miramar Misiones won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.7:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Miramar Misiones won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
12	Miramar	21	6	7	8	23:26	-3	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.04.26	Rentistas - Miramar Misiones	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Miramar Misiones - Colón Montevideo	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Oriental de La Paz - Miramar Misiones	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Miramar Misiones - Plaza Colonia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTLWL
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.04.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	4:2 ✺
06.04.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
23.03.26	River Plate Montevideo - Rentistas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
06.04.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.11.25	River Plate Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:1
04.05.25	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
13.11.24	River Plate Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	0:0
11.05.24	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
08.03.14	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	0:2
06.10.13	River Plate Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:0

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