Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Strandvallen (Hällevik)

Referee: Balakin M. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1, Servus TV
Germany	Laola1
Sweden	Sport Bladet Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Mjällby		Red Bull Salzburg

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.75	1.65	Watch
	4.40	3.90	1.75
	4.10	3.85	1.71	Watch
	4.44	3.97	1.78
	4.19	3.97	1.78	Watch
	4.55	4.00	1.67
	4.93	3.90	1.69	Watch
	4.40	3.85	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (3.28)	3.9 ↑ (3.63)	1.72 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mjällby
21.2%

Draw
24.1%

Red Bull Salzburg
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

25.8%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

24.8%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mjällby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mjällby's form might have worsened.

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Bull Salzburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mjällby than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mjällby, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Bull Salzburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.4%	11.1%	84.4%

Mjällby - Red Bull Salzburg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Red Bull Salzburg will win (38 of 45 users predict this - 84.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.85% – 95.03%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Wallinder R. (G) 33. Miettinen T. 5. Iqbal A. 24. Pettersson T. 25. Nielsen M. 7. Gustafson V. 22. Gustavsson J. (C) 29. Lindberg O. 10. Kjaer J. 18. Bergstrom J. 23. Samuelsen A.	52. Zawieschitzky C. (G) 18. Veratschnig N. (C) 44. Boma K. 47. Zabransky V. 31. Schmid D. 15. Mazurek B. 32. Barry A. 23. Redzic D. 11. Vertessen Y. 20. Baidoo E. 9. Tabakovic H.
Substitutes
3. Agnarsson M. 30. Ahlstrand M. (G) 39. Arrhenius R. 15. Bang-Kittilsen B. 21. Dalsgaard V. 6. Enggaard M. 14. Granath V. 26. Hoffmann I. 35. Lundin A. (G) 4. Noren A. 2. Svanberg L. 27. Tidstrand L.	34. Blank H. 33. Camara A. 21. Drexler T. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 8. Kitano S. 14. Kjaergaard M. 19. Konate K. 28. Matijasevic F. 4. Mellberg J. 39. Morgalla L. 41. Sarcevic N. (G) 7. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Aksum K.	Rohl D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Samuelsen A. 🟨,
60', Vertessen Y. ↓, Konate K. ↑,
60', Mazurek B. ↓, Kjaergaard M. ↑,
70', Samuelsen A. ↓, Hoffmann I. ↑,
71', Lindberg O. ↓, Granath V. ↑,
74', Tabakovic H. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
74', Redzic D. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
81', Baidoo E. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
84', Gustafson V. ↓, Enggaard M. ↑,
90', Kjaer J. ↓, Tidstrand L. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Pettersson T. (Own goal),

Preview

First leg.

Recent form of Mjällby has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Salzburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Salzburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Salzburg is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Salzburg: 1.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mjällby AIF
Swedish Allsvenskan
15.08.26	Mjällby - Sirius	4:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Slovan Bratislava - Mjällby	2:0 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
08.08.26	Mjällby - Elfsborg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Mjällby - Slovan Bratislava	1:2 ✺
28.07.26	Lincoln Red Imps - Mjällby	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLLT
- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
16.08.26	Swarovski Tirol - Red Bull Salzburg	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Paphos - Red Bull Salzburg	3:3 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
09.08.26	Wolfsberger - Red Bull Salzburg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Paphos	1:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
01.08.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Hartberg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTWW

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