Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Location: Aker Stadion (Molde)

Referee: Papapetrou A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Molde		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	7	4.75	1.4
	6.5	4.8	1.44
	7.5	5	1.42	Watch
	6.5	4.75	1.42
	7.23	5.07	1.43
	7	5	1.4
	7.1	5.05	1.42
	7	5	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.98 ↑ (5.41)	4.93 ↑ (4.51)	1.42 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Molde
13.6%

Draw
19.3%

Bayer Leverkusen
67%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

21%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

20.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Molde has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayer Leverkusen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Molde than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	7.9%	87.3%

Molde - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (55 of 63 users predict this - 87.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.08% – 95.52%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karlstrom J. (G) 3. Oyvann C. 25. Hagelskjaer A. 6. Ellingsen M. 31. Lovik M. 5. Hestad E. 15. Kaasa M. A. 16. Breivik E. 28. Haugen K. 7. Eikrem M. W. (C) 20. Eriksen K.	17. Kovar M. (G) 2. Stanisic J. 4. Tah J. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 3. Hincapie P. 34. Xhaka G. 8. Andrich R. 30. Frimpong J. 21. Adli A. 19. Tella N. 23. Hlozek A.
Substitutes
24. Bakke J. 4. Cappis C. 22. Grodem M. 8. Gulbrandsen F. 10. Kitolano E. 50. Kjolstad Nyheim G. 34. Lervik P. H. (G) 46. Myklebust A. E. 33. Odegard N. 12. Petersen O. (G)	22. Boniface V. 20. Grimaldo A. 7. Hofmann J. 1. Hradecky L. (G) 6. Kossounou O. 36. Lomb N. (G) 18. Mbamba N. 25. Palacios E. 32. Puerta Molano G. A. 10. Wirtz F.
Coaches
Moe E.	Alonso X.

Preview

Molde is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bayer is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bayer could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bayer is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Molde: Bjornbak M. (Broken Hand) Linnes M. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Tendon Injury) Fosu-Mensah T. (Knee Injury) Schick P. (Convalescence)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Molde FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
01.10.23	Molde - Viking Stavanger	4:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
27.09.23	Kjelsås - Molde	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
24.09.23	Strømsgodset - Molde	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Molde	1:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.09.23	Molde - Odd	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWTLW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3 ✺
24.09.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Häcken	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.09.23	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Alemannia Aachen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWTW

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