Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 6
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, RTL, RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport News, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	ZEE5
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	RTL, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
International	OneFootball TV


	Mainz		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.60	2.25	Watch
	3.00	3.70	2.20
	3.05	3.70	2.12	Watch
	3.10	3.80	2.31
	3	3.92	2.26	Watch
	3.05	3.65	2.25
	3.14	3.65	2.23	Watch
	3.10	3.75	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.87)	3.72 ↓ (3.97)	2.23 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
31.3%

Draw
25.7%

Bayer Leverkusen
43%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.1%

23.9%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

23.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

The chances for Bayer Leverkusen have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	7.4%	81.5%

Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 22 - 81.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 66.9% – 96.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Mainz (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bayer (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 20%). Bayer (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwolow A. (G) 4. Posch S. 3. Gruber F. 48. Potulski K. 19. Caci A. 5. Martel E. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 9. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 12. Tapsoba E. (C) 2. Medina F. 3. Gutierrez M. 8. Andrich R. 24. Garcia A. 19. Diaby M. 30. Maza I. 9. Moreira A. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 21. da Costa D. 17. Hollerbach B. 24. Kawasaki S. 40. Kinzig M. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 15. Maloney L. 47. Nakuzola R.	5. Bade L. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 22. Boniface V. 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 17. Lucas 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Andrich R. ⚽,
9', 0 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
20', Tietz P. 🟨,
33', 1 - 2, Caci A. ⚽,
35', Becker S. 🟨,
42', 2 - 2, Caci A. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 2 - 3, Quansah J. ⚽,
65', 2 - 4, Diaby M. ⚽, Moreira A. (A),
66', Maza I. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
70', Martel E. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
70', Potulski K. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
70', Caci A. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
75', Diaby M. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
75', Moreira A. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
76', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
77', Becker S. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
81', Sano K. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
83', Schick P. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
84', Garcia A. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 4, Hollerbach B. ⚽,
90+3', Quansah J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Bayer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Hand Injury).

Confirmed absences for Bayer: Culbreath M. (Foot Injury) Doue G. (Calf Injury) Kofane C. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Mainz: Nebel P. (Muscle Injury) Ruoppi O. (Knee Injury) Widmer S. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Bayer: Eichhorn K. (Illness) Maza I. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Mainz has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:38 (averaging 1.2:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mainz against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with 14:25 goals (averaging 1.4:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	14:8	6	10
5	Mainz	6	3	1	2	14:10	4	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.93% Mainz: 0.23%

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 33.1%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Mainz	0:3
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4
17.05.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
14.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:0
23.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:1
30.09.23	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
19.02.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:3

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