Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 7

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bolivia	14:45	ESPN 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	15:45	Xsports
Bulgaria	21:45	Nova Sport
Cambodia	01:45	MyTV
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	ESPN 4
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Ecuador	13:45	ESPN 4
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Israel	21:45	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Mexico	12:45	FOX One
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
Nigeria	19:45	Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:45	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	15:45	ESPN 4
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 3
South Africa	20:45	Supersport Maximo 1
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	01:45	ON Plus
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Le Mans		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.50	2.20	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.20
	3.20	3.45	2.12	Watch
	3.37	3.55	2.28
	2.97	3.59	2.29	Watch
	3.35	3.50	2.20
	3.23	3.54	2.23	Watch
	3.30	3.60	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (3.03)	3.52 ↓ (3.61)	2.21 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
29.6%

Draw
27.2%

Toulouse
43.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.2%

26.2%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

26.3%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	17.6%	64.7%

Le Mans - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Toulouse will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 42% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.67) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 17. Yohou S. (C) 5. Voyer H. 29. Bretelle L. 18. Buades L. 23. Traore D. 10. Vercruysse J. 76. Larouci Y. 25. Gueye D. 14. Mafouta L.	16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 3. McKenzie M. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 12. Tape C. 23. Casseres C. 14. Sigur N. 15. Donnum A. 20. Tengstedt C. 8. Jorgensen T. 13. Russell-Rowe J.
Substitutes
26. Bamba R. 15. Boisse N. 7. Brahimi B. 22. Calodat L. 13. Diallo H. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A.	18. Amougou M. 1. Collin T. (G) 94. Diallo I. 9. Hidalgo S. 5. Koumbassa S. 19. Odogu D. 31. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.
Coaches
Videira P.	Askou J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', 0 - 1, Russell-Rowe J. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
49', Russell-Rowe J. 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Donnum A. ⚽,
61', Traore D. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
61', Gueye D. ↓, Diallo H. ↑,
61', Larouci Y. ↓, Calodat L. ↑,
64', Donnum A. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
69', Buades L. ↓, Bamba R. ↑,
77', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
77', Voyer H. ↓, Boisse N. ↑,
85', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
87', 0 - 3, Tengstedt C. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
90', Yohou S. 🟨,
90+4', Sidibe D. 🟨,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 14th and 15th).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Le Mans: Bourabaa A. (Ankle Injury).

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	12:11	1	10
15	Le Mans	8	1	4	3	11:16	-5	7

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.5% Le Mans: 0.17%

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.6%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Le Mans	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Guingamp - Le Mans	2:1
French Ligue 1
19.09.26	Le Mans - Lorient	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Nice - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LLWTT
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Monaco - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Toulouse - Pau	2:3
French Ligue 1
19.09.26	Toulouse - Le Havre	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLWTL

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