Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 6
Canada	14:45	beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Chile	15:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Finland	21:45	Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Mexico	12:45	FOX One
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:45	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:45	Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Sports, Tubi TV
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
Vietnam	01:45	ON Plus, ON Sport, VTVcab
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Toulouse		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.00	5.00	Watch
	1.65	4.10	4.80
	1.63	3.95	4.90	Watch
	1.68	4.19	5.06
	1.7	4.09	4.55	Watch
	1.67	4.15	5.00
	1.73	4.21	5.03	Watch
	1.65	4.30	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)	4.12 ↑ (3.61)	4.92 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
57.3%

Draw
23.2%

Le Havre
19.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.9%

26.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.1%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toulouse's performance.

Le Havre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toulouse that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	13.3%	0%

Toulouse - Le Havre Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Toulouse will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 5. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Tape C. 8. Jorgensen T. 14. Sigur N. 23. Casseres C. (C) 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 20. Tengstedt C.	93. Gallon G. (G) 23. Sasso V. 15. Seko A. 5. Touba A. 20. Ouziad D. 26. Ebonog S. 7. Richardson A. (C) 12. Jelert E. 38. Fofana R. 25. Samatta A. 9. Maja J.
Substitutes
18. Amougou M. 15. Donnum A. 9. Hidalgo S. 60. Niflore M. (G) 19. Odogu D. 11. Oppong S. 31. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.	16. Bodart A. (G) 44. Bouneb I. 17. Mizuta K. 78. Mosengo D. N. 6. Mwanga J. 30. Nakamura S. 97. N'Diaye M. 14. Ndiaye R. 27. Vinette E. K.
Coaches
Askou J.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Tape C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
49', 1 - 0, Tengstedt C. (Penalty Awarded),
51', 2 - 0, Tengstedt C. ⚽, Jorgensen T. (A),
58', Sigur N. 🟨,
69', Ouziad D. ↓, Nakamura S. ↑,
69', Fofana R. ↓, Vinette E. K. ↑,
70', Sasso V. ↓, Mwanga J. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Maja J. ⚽, Nakamura S. (A),
72', Azizi I. ↓, Oppong S. ↑,
72', Tengstedt C. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
72', Messali R. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
74', Koumbassa S. 🟨,
79', 3 - 1, Jorgensen T. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
81', Nakamura S. 🟨,
82', Maja J. ↓, Bouneb I. ↑,
82', Richardson A. ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Samatta A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Toulouse (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Le Havre has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Toulouse could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Toulouse is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:10 (averaging 1.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 11:5 goals (averaging 2.2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	12:11	1	10
18	Le Havre	8	0	2	6	8:15	-7	2

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.5% Le Havre: 0.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLTLL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Le Havre - Angers	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Lyon - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Le Havre - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Le Mans - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0
23.02.25	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:4
15.09.24	Toulouse - Le Havre	2:0
10.03.24	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:0
05.11.23	Toulouse - Le Havre	1:2
French Ligue 2
21.02.22	Toulouse - Le Havre	4:0

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