Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Chile	15:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Finland	21:45	Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Mexico	12:45	Disney+, FOX One
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	20:45	Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 7
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Lorient		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.30	3.10	Watch
	2.37	3.30	2.95
	2.38	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.44	3.35	3.20
	2.42	3.39	2.9	Watch
	2.35	3.30	3.15
	2.34	3.36	3.16	Watch
	2.43	3.40	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.61)	3.33 ↑ (3.26)	3.05 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
40.1%

Draw
28.6%

Toulouse
31.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

29.1%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

29.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	45%	15%

Lorient - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 20. Sylla D. 3. Talbi M. (C) 32. Adjei N. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 72. Mbamba N. 43. Kouassi A. 33. Bernardeau G. 17. Makengo J. 18. Balde I.	60. Niflore M. (G) 22. Messali R. 5. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Tape C. 31. Schmidt N. 23. Casseres C. (C) 9. Hidalgo S. 8. Jorgensen T. 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J.
Substitutes
62. Avom A. 19. Faye S. 2. Georgen A. 10. Jensen I. 21. Kamara B. (G) 42. Kone M. 11. Le Bris T. 55. Obaretin N. 15. Tosin A.	18. Amougou M. 1. Collin T. (G) 94. Diallo I. 19. Odogu D. 11. Oppong S. 14. Sigur N. 20. Tengstedt C. 7. Vignolo J. 6. Vossah A.
Coaches
Dujeux A.	Askou J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', Katseris P. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Balde I. ⚽, Katseris P. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Mbamba N. ⚽, Katseris P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Messali R. ↓, Sigur N. ↑,
46', Hidalgo S. ↓, Tengstedt C. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Tengstedt C. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
58', Katseris P. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
58', Bernardeau G. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
67', Azizi I. ↓, Oppong S. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Jorgensen T. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
70', Balde I. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
70', Mbamba N. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
85', Schmidt N. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
85', Tape C. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 0.

Recent performances by Lorient have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lorient may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Lorient	8	3	3	2	7:6	1	12
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	12:11	1	10

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.5% Lorient: 0.32%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Nice - Lorient	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Elversberg - Lorient	4:1 ✺
04.08.26	Lorient - UNFP	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Al Ain - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
21.03.26	Toulouse - Lorient	1:0
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1
28.04.24	Lorient - Toulouse	1:2
03.12.23	Toulouse - Lorient	1:1
23.04.23	Lorient - Toulouse	0:1
21.08.22	Toulouse - Lorient	2:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
31.10.18	Toulouse - Lorient	0:1

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