Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 16

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr.António Joao Eusebio (Moncarapacho)


	Moncarapachense		Alcochetense

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.68	2.3
	3.39	2.8	2.21
	3.41	2.91	2.19	Watch
	3.2	2.75	2.2
	3.4	2.98	2.22
	3.33	2.8	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.57)	2.82 ↓ (2.9)	2.22 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moncarapachense
27.1%

Draw
32.1%

Alcochetense
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

31.1%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

33.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moncarapachense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moncarapachense's form might have worsened.

Alcochetense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alcochetense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moncarapachense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcochetense than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcochetense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Moncarapachense - Alcochetense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', 1 - 0, ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Moncarapachense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	GD Alcochetense	4	1	2	1	7:6	1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Oriental - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alverca B	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Moncarapachense - Elvas	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Juventude de Évora - Moncarapachense	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Moncarapachense - Louletano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLLT
- GD Alcochetense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Alcochetense - Comércio e Indústria	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Serpa - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Alcochetense - Lagoa	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Oriental - Alcochetense	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Alcochetense - Alverca B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
24.08.25	Alcochetense - Moncarapachense	1:2

Moncarapachense - Alcochetense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide