Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - RELEGATION GROUP - ROUND 5

Date: 30 April 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Montalegre		Varzim

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.25	1.85
	3.9	3.25	1.9
	4.17	3.47	1.93
	4.1	3.4	1.83	Watch
	3.5	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (3.15)	3.33 ↑ (3.22)	1.89 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montalegre
23.8%

Draw
27.6%

Varzim
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

29.5%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

29.7%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montalegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montalegre's form might have worsened.

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Varzim's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montalegre than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montalegre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Varzim, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Montalegre - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Recent matches Montalegre is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Varzim is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Varzim is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Montalegre won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Montalegre won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDC Montalegre
Portuguese Liga 3
22.04.23	Fafe - Montalegre	4:2 ✺
15.04.23	Montalegre - São João de Ver	1:0 ✺
07.04.23	Varzim - Montalegre	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	Montalegre - Fafe	0:1 ✺
12.03.23	Fafe - Montalegre	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWWLL
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
22.04.23	Varzim - São João de Ver	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Fafe - Varzim	2:2 ✺
07.04.23	Varzim - Montalegre	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	São João de Ver - Varzim	2:1 ✺
12.03.23	Paredes - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.04.23	Varzim - Montalegre	0:1
04.02.23	Montalegre - Varzim	1:2
22.10.22	Varzim - Montalegre	2:1

Montalegre - Varzim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide