Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 15

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)


	Fafe		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.05
	2.36	3.19	3.01	Watch
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.26	3.25	3.14	Watch
	2.14	3.1	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.06)	3.11 ↑ (3)	3.08 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
40.9%

Draw
29.4%

Varzim
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

30.3%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

30.4%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-4%)

Fafe - Varzim Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
64. Martins T. (G) 85. Castro D. 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 8. Braga V. 11. Picas 9. Santos J. 77. Carlos Daniel	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 2. Pimenta G. (C) 44. Vila Cova M. 3. Nuno P. 71. Filipe L. 14. Graca H. 27. Boloto 31. Talocha 17. Sequeira D. 9. Freitas R. 70. Ze Manuel
Substitutes
21. Davis SIlva 95. Fonseca T. 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 10. Ka 19. Leal J. 78. Pinto G. 24. Sampaio T. 5. Ze Oliveira	84. Ayiah E. 11. Benchi D. 49. Costa P. (G) 20. Derick 16. Neumann T. 99. Pedro Clemente 45. Rebelo M. 6. Santos A. 7. Teixeira G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Picas ⚽, Braga V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Braga V. 🟨,
62', Graca H. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
62', Sequeira D. ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
68', Braga V. ↓, Davis SIlva ↑,
70', Santos J. 🟨,
74', Santos J. ↓, Ka ↑,
74', Carlos Daniel ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
75', Teixeira L. 🟨,
75', Boloto ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
76', Ze Manuel ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
82', Pimenta G. ↓, Teixeira G. ↑,
82', Picas ↓, Ze Oliveira ↑,
90+3', Pinto G. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Varzim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fafe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fafe won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Taça de Portugal
27.12.25	Lusitano GC - Fafe	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
21.12.25	Amarante - Fafe	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Fafe - Trofense	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Fafe - Paredes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLTW
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Paredes - Varzim	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Varzim - Braga B	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	São João de Ver - Varzim	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Varzim - Amarante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Varzim - Fafe	1:1
17.05.25	Varzim - Fafe	5:3
29.03.25	Fafe - Varzim	1:0
09.11.24	Fafe - Varzim	2:0
10.08.24	Varzim - Fafe	0:2
03.12.23	Varzim - Fafe	0:1
20.08.23	Fafe - Varzim	0:0

Fafe - Varzim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide