Match Info

J2 League - Round 34

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.5	2.4	Watch
				Watch
	2.58	3.5	2.4	Watch
	2.71	3.7	2.47
	2.74	3.49	2.31	Watch
	2.64	3.46	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.74)	3.53 ↑ (3.49)	2.39 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
35%

Draw
26.3%

Omiya Ardija
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

26.4%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

27.7%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Omiya Ardija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Montedio Yamagata - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Shibuya T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 3. Kumamoto Y. 22. Shirowa H. 13. Nodake H. 71. Nakamura R. 17. Terayama T. 88. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 90. Disaro A. S. 25. Kokubu S.	21. Kato Y. (G) 22. Motegi R. 34. Murakami Y. 4. Ichihara R. 20. Shimoguchi W. 7. Kojima M. 30. Arthur Feitoza 14. Izumi T. 10. Toyokawa Y. 29. Caprini 90. Sunday O.
Substitutes
27. Enomoto K. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 55. Horikane S. 15. Kawai A. 99. Mikeltadze B. 23. Omori S. 49. Sakamoto K. 14. Sakamoto K. 21. Tanaka W.	42. Fujii K. 44. Fukui K. 55. Gabriel 15. Nakayama K. 23. Sugimoto K. 45. Tsuboi Y. (G) 18. Tsukui T. 33. Wada T. 41. Yachida T.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Miyazawa Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Kida R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
64', Sunday O. ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
64', Izumi T. ↓, Tsukui T. ↑,
69', Kokubu S. 🟨,
70', Kokubu S. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
70', Disaro A. S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
74', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Yachida T. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Horikane S. ⚽, Kida R. (A),
79', Terayama T. 🟨,
84', Shimoguchi W. ↓, Wada T. ↑,
84', Caprini ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
85', Terayama T. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
85', Doi S. ↓, Omori S. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Sugimoto K. ⚽, Yachida T. (A),
90', Kida R. ↓, Enomoto K. ↑,
90+3', Shibuya T. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Tsukui T. ⚽, Kojima M. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 1.

Montedio Yamagata is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Omiya's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Montedio Yamagata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
19.10.25	Montedio Yamagata - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Consadole Sapporo - Montedio Yamagata	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	3:1 ✺
14.09.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWWLW
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
18.10.25	Omiya Ardija - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Vegalta Sendai - Omiya Ardija	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Júbilo Iwata - Omiya Ardija	3:4 ✺
20.09.25	Omiya Ardija - Imabari	2:3 ✺
13.09.25	Omiya Ardija - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.02.25	Omiya Ardija - Montedio Yamagata	2:1
03.09.23	Montedio Yamagata - Omiya Ardija	1:1
08.04.23	Omiya Ardija - Montedio Yamagata	2:1
05.10.22	Omiya Ardija - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
23.04.22	Montedio Yamagata - Omiya Ardija	2:0
14.11.21	Montedio Yamagata - Omiya Ardija	2:2
03.07.21	Omiya Ardija - Montedio Yamagata	1:3

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