Match Info

J2 League - Round 31

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Renofa Yamaguchi

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.15
	2.27	3.42	3.3
	2.22	3.27	3.20	Watch
	2.17	3.32	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.13)	3.3 ↓ (3.32)	3.23 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
42.8%

Draw
28.3%

Renofa Yamaguchi
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

28.4%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

28.7%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Renofa Yamaguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Renofa Yamaguchi will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montedio Yamagata: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Montedio Yamagata (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Shibuya T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 4. Nishimura K. 5. Abe T. 13. Nodake H. 71. Nakamura R. 21. Tanaka W. 9. Takahashi J. 10. Kida R. 90. Disaro A. S. 25. Kokubu S.	21. Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 4. Matsuda K. 5. Yoshioka K. 76. Isotani S. 55. Okaniwa S. 17. Tanabe K. 27. Ozawa R. 8. Noyori K. 40. Naruoka H. 20. Kawano K. 45. Yamamoto O.
Substitutes
88. Doi S. 27. Enomoto K. 16. Hasegawa K. (G) 15. Kawai A. 99. Mikeltadze B. 23. Omori S. 14. Sakamoto K. 49. Sakamoto K. 17. Terayama T.	34. Furukawa D. 6. Kim Byeom-Yong 49. Mineda Y. 7. Misawa N. 13. Miyayoshi T. 36. Nishido H. 30. Okuyama Y. 38. Suenaga T. 26. Taguchi J. (G)
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Nakayama G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Abe T. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
39', Nishimura K. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Noyori K. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Takahashi J. ↓, Doi S. ↑,
46', Tanaka W. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Okamoto K. ⚽,
70', Kida R. 🟨,
76', Okaniwa S. ↓, Nishido H. ↑,
82', Yamamoto O. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
87', Kawano K. ↓, Okuyama Y. ↑,
87', Noyori K. ↓, Miyayoshi T. ↑,
87', Naruoka H. ↓, Mineda Y. ↑,
88', Kokubu S. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Doi S. ⚽, Sakamoto K. (A),
90+2', Disaro A. S. ↓, Omori S. ↑,
90+4', Omori S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Montedio Yamagata is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Montedio Yamagata - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.29%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
20.09.25	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	3:1 ✺
14.09.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Tokushima Vortis - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLW
- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
20.09.25	Oita Trinita - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mito HollyHock - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Vegalta Sendai	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
18.05.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
06.10.24	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0
06.05.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	2:0
05.07.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
29.04.23	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:1
06.08.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1
25.05.22	Montedio Yamagata - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0

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