Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 15

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.2	2.95
	1.82	3.35	3.75	Watch
	1.82	3.77	3.97
	1.84	3.6	4.05	Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.88
	1.78	3.48	3.99	Watch
	1.97	3.4	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (1.97)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	3.59 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
47.8%

Draw
26.6%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

27.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

26.2%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Shibuya T. (G) 15. Kawai A. 4. Nishimura K. 49. Sakamoto K. 13. Nodake H. 17. Terayama T. 20. Yoshio Kaina 14. Yanagimachi K. 18. Yokoyama R. 11. Disaro A. S. 27. Enomoto K.	13. Kondo I. (G) 25. Nakano R. 43. Nose S. 3. Ohata R. 38. Konishi H. 27. Fujimura R. 14. Kikuchi K. 2. Tagashira R. 7. Nishimura Y. 20. Shimokawa T. 99. Nakashima T.
Substitutes
1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 10. Kida R. 7. Nakamura R. 19. Okamoto K. 22. Shirowa H. 9. Takahashi J. 21. Tanaka W. 88. Thalisson 6. Yamada T.	36. Adachi S. 26. Akimoto R. 19. Farzan Sana M. 17. Hyakuda M. 29. Matsumoto K. 16. Shiga K. (G) 4. Tamashiro T. 18. Tanaka S. 6. Yonehara S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Nakashima T. ⚽, Shimokawa T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Yokoyama R. ↓, Kida R. ↑,
60', Enomoto K. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
60', Fujimura R. ↓, Yonehara S. ↑,
67', Yonehara S. 🟨,
70', Nakashima T. ↓, Adachi S. ↑,
70', Shimokawa T. ↓, Tamashiro T. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Nodake H. ⚽, Disaro A. S. (A),
85', Kikuchi K. ↓, Hyakuda M. ↑,
85', Tagashira R. ↓, Farzan Sana M. ↑,
85', Kida R. ↓, Thalisson ↑,
90', Disaro A. S. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
90', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Hyakuda M. ⚽, Nakano R. (A),
90+7', Nishimura K. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Montedio Yamagata is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 1.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 J3 League
03.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi	3:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Blaublitz Akita - Montedio Yamagata	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Montedio Yamagata - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama FC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLLWW
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J2 J3 League
03.05.26	Vanraure Hachinohe - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
29.04.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Vegalta Sendai	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Yokohama FC	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Shonan Bellmare - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Tochigi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
21.02.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Montedio Yamagata	1:2 penalties
Japan J2 League
14.09.24	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:1
02.06.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Montedio Yamagata	0:0
29.10.23	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:1
12.03.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
23.07.22	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1
Japan Emperors Cup
01.06.22	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:3

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