Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 24

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Orvietana		Montevarchi

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.92
	2.31	3.17	2.9	Watch
	2.32	3.1	2.88
	2.3	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.17)	3.09 ↓ (3.23)	2.93 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orvietana
39.6%

Draw
29.4%

Montevarchi
31.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.1%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

29.2%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orvietana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orvietana than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Orvietana - Montevarchi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
74', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group E (Play Out: ) and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Orvietana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Orvietana won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Montevarchi	9	4	1	4	13:12	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Orvietana - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 41.85%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orvietana Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
08.02.26	Foligno - Orvietana	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Orvietana - Seravezza Pozzi	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ghiviborgo - Orvietana	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Orvietana - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Siena - Orvietana	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLTWL
- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
08.02.26	Montevarchi - Cannara	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Trestina - Montevarchi	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Seravezza Pozzi - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Montevarchi - Grosseto	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	San Donato Tavarnelle - Montevarchi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
12.10.25	Montevarchi - Orvietana	0:4
10.12.23	Orvietana - Montevarchi	0:3

Orvietana - Montevarchi