Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Brazil	17:00	Disney+
Mexico	14:00	Disney+
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Uruguay	17:00	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+


	Montevideo City Torque		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.60	3.50	4.75	Watch
	1.66	3.60	4.60
	1.78	3.45	4.50
	1.71	3.93	5.11
	1.87	3.56	4.02	Watch
	1.66	3.85	4.95
	1.68	3.67	4.98	Watch
	1.70	3.65	4.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.95)	3.65 ↑ (3.2)	4.69 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo City Torque
54.6%

Draw
25.5%

Danubio
19.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.3%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.9%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo City Torque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Montevideo City Torque's performance.

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Danubio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Montevideo City Torque that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montevideo City Torque - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: Montevideo City Torque will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torgnascioli F. (C) 17. Aguero E. 3. Silva K. 22. Gutierrez B. 14. Zampieri S. 5. Pizzichillo F. 8. Siles P. 20. Montes G. 10. Obregon E. 9. Rodriguez S. 7. Andrade L.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Rinaldi M. 19. Brasil M. 3. Rodriguez G. 6. Sosa L. (C) 10. Peralta M. 16. Rossi I. 38. Trasante J. 8. Rodriguez S. 21. Azambuja B. 77. Tomatis B.
Substitutes
15. Busquets E. 32. Caceres S. 11. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L. 19. Guzman D. 24. Kagelmacher G. 18. Lecchini R. 30. Quintana J. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 27. Taran J.	7. Cabrera E. 28. Femia E. 30. Fernandez S. 20. Ferreira M. 33. Garcia D. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 80. Tizon C. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Mendez M.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tomatis B. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
45', Rossi I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Azambuja B. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Rodriguez S. ⚽,
66', Rodriguez S. ↓, Tizon C. ↑,
66', Trasante J. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
70', Andrade L. ↓, Guzman D. ↑,
70', Pizzichillo F. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑,
79', Guzman D. 🟨,
79', Brasil M. 🟨,
82', Tizon C. 🟨,
87', Siles P. 🟨,
88', Rodriguez S. ↓, Kagelmacher G. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 2nd and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montevideo City won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Danubio could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Montevideo City carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Montevideo City has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:21 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Montevideo City against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:8 goals (averaging 1:1.1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	12	8	1	3	24:13	11	25
13	Danubio	12	2	4	6	6:13	-7	10

Last Results with these Odds

Montevideo City Torque - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 46.49%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.18%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Atenas de San Carlos	3:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.26	Central Español - Montevideo City Torque	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLTW
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.26	Danubio - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	2:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.07.26	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:0
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1
28.09.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	2:0
07.06.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	3:2
30.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:1
20.08.23	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	0:1

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