The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Danubio 38.3%
Draw 29.5%
Montevideo Wanderers 32.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.6%
29.3%
27.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.3%
28.8%
26.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Danubio's form might have worsened.
Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montevideo Wanderers's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Danubio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montevideo Wanderers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Rinaldi M. 19. Brasil M. 31. Cavanagh T. 18. Balatti F. 8. Rodriguez S. 5. Millan J. 10. Peralta M. 6. Sosa L. (C) 11. John Kleber 30. Fernandez S.
33. Buffa A. (G) 21. Benitez S. 13. Formiliano F. (C) 2. Cabral N. 5. Queiroz N. 16. Alberti J. 10. Cosentino L. 31. Furtado N. 6. Zazpe L. 30. Labandeira F. 24. Zeballos J.
Substitutes
7. Cabrera E. 27. Costantino I. 28. Femia E. 20. Ferreira M. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 16. Rossi I. 80. Tizon C. 77. Tomatis B. 38. Trasante J.
14. Acosta M. 25. Freitas G. 17. Garcia A. 28. Hernandez T. 11. Luna J. 15. Mencia Hernandez D. J. 9. Ormeno S. 12. Rio J. (G) 7. Rivero R. 26. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Rocco L.
Corujo M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Brasil M. 🟨,
40', Cabral N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Peralta M. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Cosentino L. ⚽,
58', Sosa L. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
60', Cabrera E. 🟨,
61', John Kleber ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
65', Fernandez S. ↓, Tizon C. ↑,
65', Millan J. ↓, Rossi I. ↑,
71', Zeballos J. ↓, Freitas G. ↑,
71', Labandeira F. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
73', Cosentino L. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
78', Formiliano F. ↓, Acosta M. ↑,
78', Zazpe L. ↓, Mencia Hernandez D. J. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Ferreira M. ⚽,
Preview
A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 15th and 11th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 1.
Danubio is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Wanderers has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Wanderers could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Danubio is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Danubio has recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:26 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Danubio against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 4:13 goals (averaging 0.5:1.6 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Wanderers
9
4
3
2
12:11
1
15
13
Danubio
9
1
4
4
4:10
-6
7
Last Results with these Odds
Montevideo Wanderers - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 27.13%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Goicoechea M. (G) 
Rinaldi M. 
John Kleber 
Mencia Hernandez D. J. 
Ormeno S. 
