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Current Win Probability
Defensor Sporting 41.1%
Draw 29.2%
Danubio 29.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.9%
29.3%
30.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36%
26.5%
34.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensor Sporting that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+4.4%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
66.7%
0%
Defensor Sporting - Danubio Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 4. Rodriguez G. 3. De los Santos G. 2. Elizalde E. 24. de los Santos L. 11. Agazzi L. 5. Barrios G. 8. Wunsch N. 29. Pozzo T. A. 7. Medina N. 26. Montenegro B.
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 6. Sosa L. (C) 31. Cavanagh T. 2. Velazquez E. 4. Rinaldi M. 18. Balatti F. 8. Rodriguez S. 5. Millan J. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
25. Abella D. 10. Biscayzacu X. 30. Cuello E. 19. Diaz J. 1. Machado L. (G) 55. Rabunal M. 21. Scotti N. 14. Sorondo F. 22. Torterolo A.
21. Azambuja B. 7. Cabrera E. 27. Costantino I. 28. Femia E. 32. Martinez K. (G) 16. Rossi I. 80. Tizon C. 77. Tomatis B. 38. Trasante J.
Coaches
Larriera M.
Rocco L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Velazquez E. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Velazquez E. ↓, Tizon C. ↑,
46', Balatti F. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
57', Elizalde E. ↓, Sorondo F. ↑,
62', Fernandez S. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
63', Ferreira M. ↓, Azambuja B. ↑,
65', Tizon C. 🟨,
66', Medina N. ↓, Scotti N. ↑,
67', Pozzo T. A. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
68', De los Santos G. 🟨,
79', Montenegro B. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
79', Barrios G. ↓, Rabunal M. ↑,
83', Agazzi L. 🟨,
85', Costantino I. 🟨,
85', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
86', Rodriguez S. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 2.
In recent outings, Defensor Sporting has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Danubio has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Danubio may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Defensor Sporting is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting has recorded 7 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:17 (averaging 0.9:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Defensor Sporting against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:13 goals (averaging 0.9:1.1 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
13
Danubio
9
1
4
4
4:10
-6
7
Last Results with these Odds
Danubio - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 30.84%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Dawson K. (G) 
Pozzo T. A. 
Montenegro B. 
Biscayzacu X. 
