Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 21

Date: 19 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Moreirense		BSAD

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	5.25
	1.61	3.6	4.75
	1.6	3.9	4.6
	1.56	4.49	5.75
	1.62	3.5	4.8
	1.52	4.1	5.75
	1.6	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.34)	3.96 ↓ (4.2)	5.09 ↓ (8.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
58.6%

Draw
23.3%

BSAD
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

21.5%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

20.7%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moreirense's form might have worsened.

BSAD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BSAD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moreirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BSAD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Moreirense - BSAD Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). BSAD will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 2.

Moreirense is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches BSAD is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

BSAD could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Moreirense is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Moreirense won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
10.02.23	Torreense - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
04.02.23	Moreirense - Académico de Viseu	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Vilafranquense - Moreirense	1:2 ✺
22.01.23	Covilhã - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
13.01.23	Moreirense - Mafra	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWTW
- BSAD
Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.23	BSAD - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.02.23	Famalicão - BSAD	4:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.02.23	Porto B - BSAD	1:2 ✺
30.01.23	BSAD - Trofense	1:1 ✺
21.01.23	BSAD - Vilafranquense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
27.08.22	BSAD - Moreirense	2:3
Liga Portugal
07.02.22	Moreirense - BSAD	4:1
27.08.21	BSAD - Moreirense	1:1
01.03.21	Moreirense - BSAD	2:2
18.10.20	BSAD - Moreirense	0:0
11.07.20	BSAD - Moreirense	0:1
15.12.19	Moreirense - BSAD	2:1

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