Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 18

Date: 29 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Vilafranquense		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.1
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3.45	3	2.1
	3.3	3.2	2.11
	3.46	3.26	2.28
	3.3	3	2.1
	3.28	3.28	2.15
	3.25	3.15	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.8)	3.15 ↑ (3)	2.13 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilafranquense
27.8%

Draw
29.1%

Moreirense
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

32.3%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilafranquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moreirense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	33.3%	55.6%

Vilafranquense - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vilafranquense will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Moreirense will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Vilafranquense is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Moreirense is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Moreirense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Moreirense will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Vilafranquense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
21.01.23	BSAD - Vilafranquense	0:3 ✺
14.01.23	Vilafranquense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
08.01.23	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	0:0 ✺
23.12.22	Vilafranquense - Mafra	3:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
11.12.22	Vilafranquense - BSAD	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTTT
- Moreirense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
22.01.23	Covilhã - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
13.01.23	Moreirense - Mafra	4:2 ✺
05.01.23	Leixões - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
31.12.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.22	Moreirense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
14.10.22	Moreirense - Vilafranquense	3:0
Portuguese Liga 2
07.08.22	Moreirense - Vilafranquense	1:0

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