Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 20

Date: 13 February 2023, Monday

Location: Estádio Nacional do Jamor (Lisbon - Oeiras)

Referee: Pinho J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	BSAD		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3	2.35
	2.88	3.05	2.35
	3.1	3.18	2.53
	2.9	2.9	2.38
	2.9	3.2	2.39
	2.85	2.95	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.6)	3.07 ↓ (3.2)	2.4 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
31.9%

Draw
29.9%

Penafiel
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.1%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	30.8%	53.8%

BSAD - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. BSAD will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Penafiel will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches BSAD won 1.

BSAD is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Penafiel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches BSAD won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-11.

Including matches at home between the teams BSAD won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Taça de Portugal
08.02.23	Famalicão - BSAD	4:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.02.23	Porto B - BSAD	1:2 ✺
30.01.23	BSAD - Trofense	1:1 ✺
21.01.23	BSAD - Vilafranquense	0:3 ✺
15.01.23	Oliveirense - BSAD	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTLL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Leixões - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
22.01.23	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
14.01.23	Penafiel - Torreense	0:0 ✺
09.01.23	Tondela - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.08.22	Penafiel - BSAD	3:3
Club Friendly
11.07.18	Penafiel - BSAD	5:2
Liga Portugal
25.01.15	BSAD - Penafiel	0:0
17.08.14	Penafiel - BSAD	1:3
Portuguese Liga 2
30.03.13	Penafiel - BSAD	2:0
01.11.12	BSAD - Penafiel	2:0

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