Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 24

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday


	Mortágua		Os Marialvas

	1	X	2
	2.22	3	3.05
	2.58	2.71	2.81
	2.55	2.74	2.98	Watch
	2.45	2.63	2.9
	2.49	2.75	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.19)	2.77 ↓ (3.1)	2.94 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
36.7%

Draw
32.6%

Os Marialvas
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

30.3%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Os Marialvas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mortágua, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Os Marialvas than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Mortágua - Os Marialvas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 7).

Mortágua is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marialvas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Marialvas has had a series of home games.

Mortágua could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mortágua won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mortagua	4	3	1	0	9:4	5	10
4	Os Marialvas	4	3	0	1	8:2	6	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.03.26	Mortágua - Marinhense	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Naval - Mortágua	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Mortágua - Lajense	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Mortágua - Fatima	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Samora Correia - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLTLL
- CF Os Marialvas
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.03.26	Os Marialvas - União da Serra	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Os Marialvas - Fatima	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Samora Correia - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Os Marialvas - Marinhense	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Os Marialvas - Peniche	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.12.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:1
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Mortágua - Os Marialvas	1:0 penalties
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.02.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:0
15.09.24	Mortágua - Os Marialvas	1:1

Mortágua - Os Marialvas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide