Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 17

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Gandarada (Mortagua)


	Mortágua		Marinhense

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.92	3.6
	2.08	2.87	3.74
	2.05	2.90	3.83	Watch
	2.1	2.7	3.6
	2.01	2.83	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.91)	2.84 ↓ (3.03)	3.75 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
44.1%

Draw
31.8%

Marinhense
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

30.1%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

29.2%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Marinhense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marinhense than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Mortágua - Marinhense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 and 11 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 4.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Mortágua is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mortágua won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mortagua	4	3	1	0	9:4	5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
22.03.26	Naval - Mortágua	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Mortágua - Lajense	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Mortágua - Fatima	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Samora Correia - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Mortágua - Peniche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLLW
- AC Marinhense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
22.03.26	União da Serra - Marinhense	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Marinhense - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Os Marialvas - Marinhense	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Eléctrico - Marinhense	4:1 ✺
04.03.26	Marinhense - Naval	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	Marinhense - Mortágua	0:1
02.03.25	Marinhense - Mortágua	0:1
03.11.24	Mortágua - Marinhense	1:0
04.02.24	Marinhense - Mortágua	2:0
01.10.23	Mortágua - Marinhense	2:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
26.02.23	Mortágua - Marinhense	2:2
13.11.22	Marinhense - Mortágua	3:1

Mortágua - Marinhense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide