Match Info

Date: 22 June 2022, Wednesday

Location: Melløs Stadion (Moss)


	Moss		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	13	7	1.2
	11	6.25	1.18
	11	6.5	1.2
	11	6.2	1.18
	10.07	6.42	1.22
	12	5.5	1.18
	12	6.75	1.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.44 ↑ (4.83)	6.37 ↑ (4.88)	1.2 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moss
8.1%

Draw
14.5%

Sarpsborg 08
77.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

18.5%

62.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

19%

64.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moss has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moss's form might have worsened.

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarpsborg 08's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moss than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moss, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarpsborg 08, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Moss - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Moss will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarpsborg: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moss is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Sarpsborg is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sarpsborg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Sarpsborg have a series of home games.

In this match Sarpsborg is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Moss won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Moss won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moss FK
Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
19.06.22	Sotra - Moss	0:1 ✺
12.06.22	Moss - Arendal	0:1 ✺
06.06.22	Odd 2 - Moss	1:3 ✺
28.05.22	Moss - Strømmen	2:1 ✺
22.05.22	Flekkerøy - Moss	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWWW
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
18.06.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.06.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Häcken	1:4 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
29.05.22	Jerv - Sarpsborg 08	0:5 ✺
26.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Molde	1:2 ✺
22.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.01.18	Sarpsborg 08 - Moss	3:0
Norwegian NM Cup
24.05.17	Moss - Sarpsborg 08	1:3
Club Friendly
12.03.14	Sarpsborg 08 - Moss	1:1

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