Match Info

Date: 17 September 2020, Thursday


	Mura		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.8	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.85
	3.95	3.7	1.88	Watch
	3.6	3.55	1.82
	3.93	3.86	1.88
	3.75	3.5	1.83	Watch
	3.82	3.7	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↓ (4.81)	3.64 ↓ (3.76)	1.85 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mura
24.5%

Draw
25.4%

AGF Aarhus
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

24.4%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

20.2%

68.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mura has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mura's performance.

AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AGF Aarhus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mura than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mura that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+18.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AGF Aarhus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	12.1%	60.6%

Mura - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Mura will win (votes: 9 - 27.3%). Aarhus will win (votes: 20 - 60.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aarhus: 43.9% – 77.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

No spectators.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Mura 05 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Mura 05 have a series of guest games.

Recently Aarhus have a series of home games.

Aarhus will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NS Mura
Slovenian PrvaLiga
13.09.20	Olimpija Ljubljana - Mura	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.09.20	Nõmme Kalju - Mura	0:4 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
30.08.20	Mura - Tabor Sežana	3:0 ✺
22.08.20	Celje - Mura	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.20	Maribor - Mura	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWWWL
- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
14.09.20	AGF Aarhus - Vejle Boldklub Kolding	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.20	Nordsjælland - AGF Aarhus	2:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.08.20	AGF Aarhus - Honka	5:2 ✺
Danish Superliga
29.07.20	AGF Aarhus - OB Odense	2:1 ✺
26.07.20	AGF Aarhus - Brøndby	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWL

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