Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 21

Date: 18 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Trujillo Suarez D. (Esp)


	Málaga		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.5	Watch
	3	2.87	2.37
	3.2	2.8	2.55
	3.1	2.9	2.45
	3.36	2.95	2.53
	3.1	2.88	2.5	Watch
	3.15	3.04	2.41	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↓ (3.26)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)	2.47 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
29.9%

Draw
32.2%

Deportivo Alavés
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

31%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

30.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	57.7%	26.9%

Málaga - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 8 - 15.4%). Alavés will win (votes: 14 - 26.9%). It will Tie (votes: 30 - 57.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.3% – 71.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Málaga has the most likely position - 22 (24.24%), has project points - 42, has currently - 16, has a good chance of relegated (68%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Alavés has the most likely position - 3 (10.45%), has project points - 65, has currently - 34, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (38%), has a chance of promoted (25%), has a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 44, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Málaga is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alavés is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Málaga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Málaga won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Málaga won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
11.12.22	Ibiza - Málaga	1:1 ✺
08.12.22	Málaga - Granada	1:1 ✺
04.12.22	Levante - Málaga	1:0 ✺
26.11.22	Málaga - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
19.11.22	Zaragoza - Málaga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TTLWT
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
12.12.22	Deportivo Alavés - Levante	0:2 ✺
07.12.22	Tenerife - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
02.12.22	Granada - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
26.11.22	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal B	2:0 ✺
20.11.22	Eibar - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
06.05.18	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	0:3
21.12.17	Deportivo Alavés - Málaga	1:0
11.03.17	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	1:2
16.10.16	Deportivo Alavés - Málaga	1:1

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