Match Info

Date: 24 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)


	Málaga		Villarreal B

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.6
	1.95	3.5	3.8
	1.96	3.45	3.6
	2.05	3.54	3.86
	2.62	3	2.8	Watch
	1.96	3.55	3.72
	2	3.5	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.63)	3.42 ↑ (3)	3.61 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
46.1%

Draw
27.7%

Villarreal B
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

31.1%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

31.9%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villarreal B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	22.5%	22.5%

Málaga - Villarreal B Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 22 - 55%). Villarreal B will win (votes: 9 - 22.5%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 22.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 39.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Málaga has the most likely position - 22 (14.19%), has project points - 46, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (43%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Villarreal B has the most likely position - 16 (5.92%), has project points - 54, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (20%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (14%), has a small chance of promoted (6%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 36, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Málaga is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Villarreal B is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Málaga will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
19.09.22	Tenerife - Málaga	3:1 ✺
11.09.22	Huesca - Málaga	1:0 ✺
04.09.22	Málaga - Albacete Balompié	1:2 ✺
27.08.22	Mirandés - Málaga	1:3 ✺
22.08.22	Málaga - Las Palmas	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWL
- Villarreal B
Spanish LaLiga2
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Levante - Villarreal B	4:1 ✺
03.09.22	Villarreal B - Mirandés	3:0 ✺
29.08.22	Granada - Villarreal B	3:0 ✺
19.08.22	Villarreal B - Eibar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWLT

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