Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 16

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Mérida AD		Hércules

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.88	3.4
	2.2	2.87	3.1
	2.3	2.95	3.25
	2.38	2.84	3.41
	2.24	2.86	3.42	Watch
	2.27	3.04	3.2
	2.3	2.95	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.57)	2.91 ↓ (3.11)	3.29 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
40.6%

Draw
31.5%

Hércules
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.5%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

28.5%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Hércules has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hércules might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hércules than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hércules could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mérida AD - Hércules Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 4. Bonaque M. 18. Falcon E. 22. Climent M. 11. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. 23. Busi 17. Ganet P. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 28. Galvan J. 2. Cantero R. 42. Cisse A. 12. Richmond S. 16. Angong F. 24. de Palmas R. 19. Mangada C. 7. Alvarito 17. Mendes M. 23. Romera D.
Substitutes
28. del Cerro S. 16. Garcia P. 15. Prevedini M. 3. Sergi 27. Tiago Leal 13. Vicente D. (G)	22. Aranda A. 8. Artiles J. 6. Colomina R. 9. Coscia A. 14. Garcia M. 5. Gomez Meneses J. M. 4. Montoro A. 11. Moreno Sanchez J. 20. Sotillos A. 1. Trujillo Hernandez A. C. (G) 15. Vazquez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', Moreno Sanchez J. 🟨,
59', 1 - 0, Beltran L. (Pen),
66', Busi ↓, del Cerro S. ↑,
77', Eslava J. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
77', Doncel C. ↓, Sergi ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Alvarito (Pen),
84', Romera D. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Beneit R. ⚽,
88', Mendes M. ↓, Coscia A. ↑,
88', de Palmas R. ↓, Sotillos A. ↑,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 and 9).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Hércules could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Mérida AD will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.73%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0 ✺
23.11.24	Mérida AD - Intercity	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
10.11.24	Mérida AD - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
03.11.24	Alcorcón - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLTT
- Hércules CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.12.24	Hércules - Sevilla B	1:0 ✺
24.11.24	Recreativo Huelva - Hércules	2:1 ✺
20.11.24	Hércules - Marbella	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Hércules - Villarreal B	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
14.11.24	Ejea - Hércules	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWLL

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