Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Osasuna B

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	4.75
	1.72	3.45	4.45
	1.67	3.69	4.98	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.33
	1.7	3.38	4.64
	1.64	3.4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.74)	3.44 ↑ (3.42)	4.65 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
54.1%

Draw
26.4%

Osasuna B
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

27.1%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

22%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

The chances for Osasuna B have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mérida AD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Mérida AD - Osasuna B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 15. Martinez G. 5. Dominguez J. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 11. Areso J. 16. Capitas M. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	13. Rafa (G) 36. Kepa 4. Espejo D. 23. Serrano M. 21. Ruiz R. C. 6. Echegoyen M. 14. Garcia J. 11. Pedroarena M. 16. Auria M. 8. Yoldi A. 7. Lumbreras C.
Substitutes
14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 10. Doncel C. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 6. Miki 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	30. Anso M. 34. Arrasate I. 17. Arroyo R. 18. Bonel A. 19. Bonel A. 26. Garin X. 3. Jimenez A. 35. Kall A. 22. Larrion A. 20. Perez B. 5. Santos U. 1. Stamatakis D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 🟨,
10', 🟨,
25', 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Chiqui ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Capitas M. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
62', Echegoyen M. ↓, Arrasate I. ↑,
63', Pedroarena M. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
63', Chiqui ↓, Artola J. ↑,
71', Lumbreras C. ↓, Bonel A. ↑,
78', Ruiz R. C. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
84', Dibrani B. ↓, Miki ↑,
85', Areso J. ↓, Pareja L. ↑,
85', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
89', Martinez G. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+9', Rivas M. 🟨,
90+9', Rivas M. 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Mérida AD is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Osasuna B is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Osasuna B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mérida AD is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWT
- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Osasuna B - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Arenteiro - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Osasuna B - Lugo	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Osasuna B - Zamora	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

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