Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ferrol		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.83	3	4.33
	1.88	3.05	4.25
	1.87	3.26	4.43
	1.89	3.36	4.05	Watch
	1.9	3.11	4.5
	1.81	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.89)	3.15 ↓ (3.36)	4.29 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
49.4%

Draw
29.2%

Mérida AD
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

27.7%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27.5%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Ferrol - Mérida AD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 22. Mardones A. 15. Zalaya A. 3. Pujol E. 17. Ramon A. 8. Gorostidi A. 23. Pena A. 10. Pascu 5. Noriega J. 7. Alvaro J. 20. Gimenez A. (C)	1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 5. Dominguez J. 4. Pareja L. 23. Verges E. 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 11. Areso J. 10. Doncel C. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.
Substitutes
21. Carballo D. 11. Dacosta R. 25. Diaz L. (G) 9. Escobar A. 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 16. Garcia S. 6. Gelardo A. 2. Miguel	14. Artola J. 21. Beneit R. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 15. Martinez G. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Areso J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', 1 - 0, Pena A. ⚽,
65', Pareja L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
70', Pena A. 🟨,
72', Chiqui ↓, Artola J. ↑,
72', Areso J. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
75', Garcia A. 🟨,
75', Alvaro J. ↓, Dacosta R. ↑,
78', Pujol E. 🟨,
80', Pena A. ↓, Gelardo A. ↑,
80', Gimenez A. ↓, Escobar A. ↑,
87', Dibrani B. ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
87', Dominguez J. ↓, Pipe ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Artola J. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽,
90+10', 🟨,
90+12', 2 - 2, Mardones A. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 6).

Ferrol has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mérida AD is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ferrol is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ferrol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.11.25	Barakaldo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Ferrol - Zamora	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Arenteiro - Ferrol	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Ferrol - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Langreo - Ferrol	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWLW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Navalcarnero - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.04.23	Mérida AD - Ferrol	2:1
27.11.22	Ferrol - Mérida AD	1:1

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