Match Info

MALTA: Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Mġarr United		Marsa

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.75	1.98	Watch
	2.99	3.76	1.98
	3.22	3.67	1.98	Watch
	3.81	3.4	1.9
	3.05	3.75	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.97)	3.67 ↑ (3.3)	1.96 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mġarr United
28.4%

Draw
25%

Marsa
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

27.6%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

26.5%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mġarr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Marsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marsa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mġarr United - Marsa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono J. (G) 7. Azzopardi K. 15. Borg A. (C) 4. Camilleri R. 29. Donsu K. 18. Ebisindor C. 8. Frendo K. 24. Mifsud M. 5. Mijic L. 16. Okoh S. 2. Vukovic D.	12. Caruana R. (G) 7. Agius D. (C) 10. Aquilina G. 22. Bugeja G. 98. Bugeja S. 81. Cipriott S. 17. Engerer J. 26. Gatt K. 70. Micallef L. 99. Sgaria R. 4. Zerafa D.
Substitutes
23. Boakye S. 12. Chircop J. (G) 27. Farrugia L. 22. Galea Z. 11. Gauci C. 9. Howland T. 3. Parnis J. 14. Zammit C. 19. Zammit J.	30. Abela I. 8. Aboumehdi J. 18. Azzopardi J. 6. Bugeja M. 9. Claudir 21. Grima D. (G) 20. Muscat L. 1. Sylla A. (G) 23. Tom Tom

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Engerer J. 🟨,
14', Azzopardi K. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Micallef L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Azzopardi K. ↓, Gauci C. ↑,
58', Caruana R. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Ebisindor C. (Pen),
65', Cipriott S. ↓, Tom Tom ↑,
66', Ebisindor C. ↓, Boakye S. ↑,
75', Debono J. 🟨,
82', Vukovic D. ↓, Howland T. ↑,
83', Bugeja G. ↓, Claudir ↑,
89', Frendo K. ↓, Zammit J. ↑,
90+4', Mijic L. 🟨,
90+5', Micallef L. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Mġarr United could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Marsa have a series of home games.

Marsa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Mġarr United won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Mġarr United won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
09.02.25	Żurrieq - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	5:3 ✺
25.01.25	Mġarr United - Lija Athletic	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Sirens - Mġarr United	4:4 ✺
05.01.25	Mġarr United - Senglea Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLTTW
- Marsa FC
Maltese Challenge League
09.02.25	Marsa - Valletta	0:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
05.02.25	Marsa - Sliema Wanderers	0:4 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.25	Gudja United - Marsa	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Marsa - St. Andrews	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Marsa - Żebbuġ Rangers	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
27.10.24	Mġarr United - Marsa	2:2
06.02.22	Marsa - Mġarr United	1:0
17.10.21	Mġarr United - Marsa	0:2

Mġarr United - Marsa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide