Match Info

MALTA: Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Mġarr United

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.6	2.15
				Watch
	2.94	3.41	2.12
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.4)	3.51 ↓ (3.75)	2.14 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 10.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
32.2%

Draw
25.7%

Mġarr United
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

23.8%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

23.7%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Lucia's form might have worsened.

Mġarr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Lucia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Santa Lucia - Mġarr United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Farrugia C. (G) 19. Asante E. 23. Bajada J. 27. Borg A. 15. Bradshaw A. 10. Cloth J. (C) 42. Hanan B. 45. Mawuena S. 5. Nicholl J. 6. Sixsmith J. 74. Vella A.	1. Debono J. (G) 27. Attard M. 15. Borg A. 4. Camilleri R. 29. Donsu K. 18. Ebisindor C. 24. Mifsud M. 5. Mijic L. 16. Okoh S. 2. Vukovic D. 19. Zammit J. (C)
Substitutes
24. Agius S. 14. Bajada J. 1. Buhagiar M. (G) 21. Mangion D. 9. Salis I.	23. Boakye S. 12. Chircop J. (G) 17. Farrugia L. 8. Frendo K. 11. Gauci C. 6. Howland T. 3. Parnis J. 14. Zammit C. 88. Zerafa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Borg A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Zammit J. ⚽,
61', 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, ⚽,
82', 🟨,
84', 🟨,

Preview

Santa Lucia is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Mġarr United is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:7 (average 4:3.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Lucia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:7 (average 4:3.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge Cup
27.02.25	Żebbuġ Rangers - Santa Lucia	2:3 penalties ✺
Maltese Challenge League
22.02.25	Tarxien Rainbows - Santa Lucia	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Santa Lucia - Żurrieq	3:6 ✺
08.02.25	Senglea Athletic - Santa Lucia	1:3 ✺
02.02.25	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTLWW
- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge Cup
27.02.25	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	1:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
22.02.25	Mġarr United - Pietà Hotspurs	3:2 ✺
15.02.25	Mġarr United - Marsa	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Żurrieq - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
02.02.25	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	5:3
Maltese FA Trophy
07.02.24	Santa Lucia - Mġarr United	3:4 penalties

Santa Lucia - Mġarr United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide