Match Info

Challenge League - Round 11

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Mġarr United		Swieqi United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.65	1.82	Watch
	3.58	3.65	1.85	Watch
	3.5	3.3	1.85
	3.57	3.55	1.85
	3.4	3.5	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.54)	3.53 ↓ (3.67)	1.84 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mġarr United
25.7%

Draw
25.4%

Swieqi United
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

24.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

25%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mġarr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mġarr United's form might have worsened.

Swieqi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swieqi United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mġarr United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swieqi United than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swieqi United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mġarr United - Swieqi United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Swieqi United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Igiebor W. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Cristhyan Noto ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', 2 - 1, ⚽,
57', 3 - 1, Cristhyan Noto ⚽,
81', 4 - 1, ⚽,
85', (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 5 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Mġarr United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Swieqi United is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Swieqi United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mġarr United won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mġarr United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swieqi	2	1	1	0	6:5	1	4
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
21.12.25	Mġarr United - Sirens	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
10.12.25	Mġarr United - Melita	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Marsa - Mġarr United	2:3 ✺
23.11.25	Mġarr United - Santa Lucia	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTLWT
- Swieqi United
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Swieqi United	1:2 ET ✺
Maltese Challenge League
21.12.25	Swieqi United - Pietà Hotspurs	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Sirens - Swieqi United	1:1 ✺
10.12.25	Swieqi United - Marsa	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Santa Lucia - Swieqi United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
30.03.25	Swieqi United - Mġarr United	1:2
03.11.24	Swieqi United - Mġarr United	0:0
04.03.22	Swieqi United - Mġarr United	1:1
27.11.21	Mġarr United - Swieqi United	1:2

Mġarr United - Swieqi United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide