Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Marsa		Mġarr United

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.7	1.98	Watch
	2.91	3.86	1.99
	2.91	3.98	2.01	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2
	3.03	3.8	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (3.99)	3.77 ↓ (3.93)	1.99 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsa
30.7%

Draw
24%

Mġarr United
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

23%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

22.2%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marsa's performance.

Mġarr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mġarr United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marsa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mġarr United than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mġarr United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marsa - Mġarr United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Marsa (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Demanuele N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Igiebor W. ⚽,
83', 1 - 2, Igiebor W. ⚽,

Preview

Marsa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mġarr United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Marsa has had a series of home games.

In this match, Mġarr United is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Mgarr	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsa FC
Maltese Challenge League
21.02.26	Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Marsa - Balzan	1:4 ✺
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Marsa - Żebbuġ Rangers	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Marsa - Santa Lucia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTLT
- Mġarr United
Maltese Challenge League
21.02.26	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	5:0 ✺
14.02.26	Gudja United - Mġarr United	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mġarr United - Fgura United	2:4 ✺
01.02.26	Żurrieq - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
28.01.26	Mġarr United - Mosta	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
29.11.25	Marsa - Mġarr United	2:3
15.02.25	Mġarr United - Marsa	1:1
27.10.24	Mġarr United - Marsa	2:2
06.02.22	Marsa - Mġarr United	1:0
17.10.21	Mġarr United - Marsa	0:2

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