Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Náutico Marcílio Dias		Figueirense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.65	3.05	2.73
	2.51	3.07	2.9	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.17	3.1	3.36
	2.42	3	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.29)	3.02 ↓ (3.06)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Marcílio Dias
37.9%

Draw
30.5%

Figueirense
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.8%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

28.6%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Figueirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 10. Cesinha 8. Felipe Baiano 5. Guilherme Kante 6. Jonathan 7. Jose Carlos 11. Kaique Maciel 4. Luan 9. Lucas Batatinha 3. Reginaldo 2. Victor Guilherme	12. Fabricio Santana (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 3. Douglas Bacelar 11. Felipe Augusto 70. Igor Bolt 30. Jean Mangabeira 25. Jhonnathan 99. Kayke 2. Leo Maia 28. Rafinha Potiguar 66. Wesley Costa
Substitutes
12. Erivelton (G) 15. Evandro 19. Felipe Cruz 16. Goncalves C. 21. Gustavo Acosta 13. Joao Vitor 23. Joao Vitor (G) 14. Marcelo Sousa 20. Miguel Silva 22. Ranghetti L. 17. Roldan 18. Vitinho	5. Breno 98. Dudu Sampaio 22. Ezequiel 27. Felipe Santiago 8. Flavio 33. Freitas Barreto P. C. 91. Hyuri 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 20. Oliveira W. 17. Pablo 79. Reifit 36. Saraiva P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Leo Maia 🟨,
24', Douglas Bacelar ↓, Felipe Santiago ↑,
31', 1 - 0, Reginaldo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wesley Costa ↓, Dudu Sampaio ↑,
46', Rafinha Potiguar ↓, Breno ↑,
57', Lucas Batatinha ↓, Roldan ↑,
68', Jonathan 🟨,
71', Felipe Baiano ↓, Felipe Cruz ↑,
72', Cesinha ↓, Evandro ↑,
72', Breno ↓, Flavio ↑,
78', Felipe Augusto ↓, Oliveira W. ↑,
87', Kaique Maciel ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
90', Dudu Sampaio 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marcílio Dias won 1.

Marcílio Dias has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Figueirense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Marcílio Dias won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Marcílio Dias won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
22.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWLL
- Figueirense
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Figueirense - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Concórdia - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Figueirense - Avaí	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
10.01.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
09.11.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	2:1
02.11.25	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0
04.10.25	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:2
15.09.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.02.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	2:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
15.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	0:0

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