Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: MTN Omondi Stadium (Bugoloobi)


	NEC FC		UPDF

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.45	5.7
	1.59	3.42	5.41
	1.62	3.42	5.47	Watch
	1.62	3.1	5
	1.65	3.39	5.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.43)	3.36 ↓ (3.9)	5.45 ↓ (6.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NEC FC
56.4%

Draw
27%

UPDF
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

23.1%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

21.7%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NEC FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NEC FC's form might have worsened.

UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC FC than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NEC FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

NEC FC - UPDF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 1 - 0, Media I. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League).

NEC is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

UPDF is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, NEC is the obvious favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NEC won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, NEC won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	NEC FC	4	3	1	0	9:2	7	10
10	UPDF	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NEC FC
Ugandan Super League
17.02.26	Vipers - NEC FC	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	NEC FC - Kampala City Council	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	NEC FC - Express	0:0 ✺
27.01.26	Buhimba United Saints - NEC FC	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	NEC FC - Kitara	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 TWTWT
- UPDF FC
Ugandan Super League
18.02.26	Lugazi Municipal - UPDF	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	UPDF - Buhimba United Saints	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	UPDF - Bul	0:1 ✺
27.01.26	Kampala City Council - UPDF	4:0 ✺
21.01.26	UPDF - Entebbe UPPC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
16.12.25	UPDF - NEC FC	0:0
04.04.25	UPDF - NEC FC	0:0
24.09.24	NEC FC - UPDF	1:0
13.02.24	UPDF - NEC FC	2:2
20.10.23	NEC FC - UPDF	2:0

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