Match Info
Premier League - Round 17Date: 18 February 2026, WednesdayLocation: Lugazi FC Stadium (Najjembe)
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Lugazi Municipal |
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UPDF |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.92 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
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1.94 |
3.13 |
3.76 |
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1.9 |
3 |
3.66 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.92 ↓
(1.93) |
3.08 ↓
(3.2) |
3.71 ↓
(3.85) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Lugazi Municipal
46.7% | Draw
29.1% | UPDF
24.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugazi Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugazi Municipal than the current prediction. (-8.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugazi Municipal that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UPDF could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Lugazi Municipal - UPDF Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 15', 1 - 0, Ayiko R. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League).Lugazi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).UPDF is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins โ 0).Recently, Lugazi has had a series of away games. Lugazi could have a small edge in this match.In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).Including home match between the teams, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 8 | Lugazi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 6 |
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| 10 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 5 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Ugandan Super League | | | 05.12.25 | UPDF - Lugazi Municipal | 2:0 | | 11.04.25 | Lugazi Municipal - UPDF | 2:2 | | 19.09.24 | UPDF - Lugazi Municipal | 1:0 |
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