Match Info

Date: 17 December 2020, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Nacional		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.4	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.5	1.75
	4.25	3.6	1.78
	4.4	3.65	1.74
	4.76	3.82	1.77
	4.6	3.7	1.75
	4.65	3.92	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.54 ↑ (3.98)	3.66 ↑ (3.33)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
20.7%

Draw
25.6%

River Plate Montevideo
53.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.9%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

21.6%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that River Plate Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	5%	87.5%

Nacional - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: River Plate Montevideo will win (35 of 40 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.25% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Recent matches Nacional is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

River Plate is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

River Plate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently River Plate have a series of home games.

In this match River Plate is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nacional won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.12.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.12.20	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.12.20	Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:0 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.11.20	Boston River - Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWW
- River Plate Montevideo
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
13.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Argentinos Juniors	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
05.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Godoy Cruz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.11.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	0:2
15.08.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:3
Club Friendly
11.01.20	Nacional - River Plate Montevideo	5:4 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.10.19	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	3:1
17.08.19	Nacional - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
06.04.19	Nacional - River Plate Montevideo	6:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
01.11.26	Arouca - Nacional	✺
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
01.11.26	River Plate Montevideo - Tacuarembó	✺

Nacional - River Plate Montevideo