Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Sport


	Nacional		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.85	2.65	Watch
	2.7	3	2.65
	2.78	2.92	2.72	Watch
	2.82	2.96	2.77	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.7
	2.87	3.04	2.83	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3.19)	2.94 ↓ (3.01)	2.72 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
33.7%

Draw
31.9%

Santa Clara
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

31.4%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

31.8%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Clara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	38.5%	7.7%

Nacional - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santa Clara (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Nacional (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Santa Clara (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 8. Baeza M. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 99. Pablo Ruan 9. Ramirez J. 11. Paulinho Boia	1. Gabriel Batista (C) 23. Lima S. 13. Rocha L. 94. Silva H. 42. Lucas Soares 35. Serginho 65. Tavares J. 77. Gustavo Klismahn 64. Paulo Victor 70. Vinicius Lopes 10. Gabriel Silva
Substitutes
10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 15. Labidi C. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 18. Sousa A. 24. Vallier L. 7. Witi	6. Adriano Firmino 11. Brenner 2. Diogo Calila 7. Elias Manoel 8. Ferreira P. 12. Neneca (G) 21. Venancio F. 49. Welinton Torrao
Coaches
Margarido T.	Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Vinicius Lopes ⚽,
6', Leo Santos 🟨,
15', 0 - 2, Paulo Victor ⚽,
21', 1 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽, Paulinho Boia (A),
24', Lima S. 🟨,
30', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
38', 2 - 2, Ramirez J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Pablo Ruan ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
46', Aurelio J. ↓, Deivison ↑,
50', 3 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽, Liziero (A),
52', Tavares J. 🟨,
65', Silva H. ↓, Adriano Firmino ↑,
65', Tavares J. ↓, Brenner ↑,
71', Gustavo Klismahn 🟨,
72', Matheus Dias 🟨,
76', Serginho ↓, Ferreira P. ↑,
76', Gustavo Klismahn ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
76', Paulinho Boia ↓, Witi ↑,
76', Baeza M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
81', Kaique Pereira 🟨,
83', Paulo Victor ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,
90', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 3, Elias Manoel ⚽, Gabriel Batista (A),
90+6', Rocha L. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 13)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santa Clara has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Daniel Junior (Injury) Leo Santos (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Santa Clara: 0.82% Nacional: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12:4	8	18
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWLL
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Santa Clara - Porto	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Braga - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.03.25	Santa Clara - Nacional	1:0
04.11.24	Nacional - Santa Clara	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
17.03.24	Santa Clara - Nacional	0:1
Taça de Portugal
11.01.24	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:1 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
04.11.23	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:1
Liga Portugal
11.04.21	Santa Clara - Nacional	5:1
06.12.20	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:3

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