Match Info

Date: 13 December 2020, Sunday


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.6	Watch
	2.6	2.95	2.6
	2.55	3	2.7
	2.8	3.11	2.82
	2.6	3	2.7
	2.63	3.22	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.65)	3.07 ↓ (3.28)	2.68 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
35.5%

Draw
30.1%

Nacional
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

27.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

19.8%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+18.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion to Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio to Play Offs)).

Recent matches Peñarol is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nacional have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Peñarol won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:0 ✺
11.11.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
08.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.11.20	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWTL
- Atletico Nacional
Copa Libertadores
10.12.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.12.20	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.12.20	Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:0 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.11.20	Boston River - Nacional	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
29.11.20	Portimonense - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
09.08.20	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
15.12.19	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
11.12.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	0:2
17.11.19	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0
01.09.19	Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:0
Club Friendly
06.07.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.05.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional	1:1

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