Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nacional Asuncion		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.4
	2.70	3.00	2.35
	2.72	2.95	2.52	Watch
	2.93	3.07	2.69
	2.74	3.15	2.62	Watch
	2.8	3	2.65
	2.78	3.17	2.54	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.55)	3.04 ↓ (3.2)	2.53 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
33.5%

Draw
30.2%

Libertad Asuncion
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.4%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

31.4%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Libertad (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Libertad (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (G) 21. Feliu J. 26. Coronel M. 4. Gutierrez T. 29. Vargas S. 8. Jara F. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 33. Gaona Lugo O. (C) 13. Meza L. 27. Prieto R. 9. Benitez H. A.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Benitez A. 3. Rojas R. 23. Freire N. 4. Gimenez N. 6. Campuzano A. (C) 24. Villalba R. 8. Carrizo F. 21. Sanabria L. 11. Vera E. 9. Aguilar G.
Substitutes
7. Bailone I. 5. Benitez G. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 23. Espinola C. 19. Gonzales L. 22. Melgarejo R. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 36. Pelozo F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 18. Valdez I.	13. Bogarin J. 31. Fernandez T. 5. Flores G. 19. Franco I. 14. Fretes A. 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 32. Nequecaur L. 26. Ramirez I. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 34. Villalba E.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Valdez N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Benitez H. A. (Penalty Awarded),
20', Cardozo Lucena A. 🟨,
29', Aguilar G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
46', Villalba R. ↓, Flores G. ↑,
46', Freire N. ↓, Nequecaur L. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Meza L. ⚽,
59', Sanabria L. ↓, Villalba E. ↑,
59', Carrizo F. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
68', Benitez A. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
70', Benitez H. A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
70', Meza L. ↓, Melgarejo R. ↑,
71', Campuzano A. 🟨,
79', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Valdez I. ⚽, Prieto R. (A),
85', Prieto R. ↓, Colman Escobar D. J. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

Nacional is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Libertad is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:35. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.2:1.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.93%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.08.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
18.08.26	Benjamín Aceval - Nacional Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.08.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWTT
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
30.08.26	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
20.08.26	Tacuary - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
16.08.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
10.08.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
24.05.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
18.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1
27.09.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:1
19.07.25	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1
11.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0
29.01.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:3
Copa Paraguay
06.12.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0

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