Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo San Lorenzo		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.4	1.6	Watch
	5.15	3.55	1.62	Watch
	5.6	3.72	1.7
	4.97	3.68	1.69	Watch
	5	3.4	1.65
	5.45	3.53	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.24 ↑ (3.54)	3.55 ↑ (3.45)	1.65 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo San Lorenzo
17.7%

Draw
26.2%

Libertad Asuncion
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

27.1%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

25.9%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo San Lorenzo's form might have worsened.

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo San Lorenzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Sportivo San Lorenzo (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Libertad Asuncion will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sportivo San Lorenzo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Libertad (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cristoforo F. (G) 29. Garcia M. 19. Caceres L. 18. Aveiro P. 4. Doldan J. 17. Jara T. 30. Galeano A. 8. Quinonez A. (C) 34. Alderete E. 22. Figueroa I. 35. Colman C.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 27. Molinas A. 6. Campuzano A. 15. Benitez A. 16. Duarte A. 11. Aguilar G. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)
Substitutes
24. Aguero M. 14. Alfonso M. 2. Esteche L. 21. Gonzalez H. 13. Lopez M. 27. Ortiz E. 36. Paez A. 15. Pinatares B. 12. Quinonez W. (G) 23. Rivas F. 6. Villamayor H.	26. Caballero H. 8. Carrizo F. 31. Fernandez T. 18. Franco I. 14. Fretes A. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 33. Martinez C. 22. Martinez H. 19. Recalde J. 7. Rojas M. 30. Vera O. R. 34. Villalba E.
Coaches
Caceres J. C.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Melgarejo L. (Penalty Awarded),
18', 0 - 2, Gimenez N. ⚽, Molinas A. (A),
29', Duarte A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
39', 0 - 3, Melgarejo L. ⚽, Aguilar G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Figueroa I. ↓, Gonzalez H. ↑,
46', Alderete E. ↓, Alfonso M. ↑,
49', 0 - 4, Espinoza Acosta M. D. ⚽, Gimenez N. (A),
52', Jara T. 🟨,
53', Molinas A. 🟨,
61', Caceres L. 🟨,
63', 0 - 5, Benitez A. ⚽,
64', Quinonez A. ↓, Villamayor H. ↑,
65', Colman C. ↓, Paez A. ↑,
74', Melgarejo L. ↓, Vera O. R. ↑,
75', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
81', Aguilar G. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
81', Ramirez I. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
86', 0 - 6, Franco I. ⚽, Benitez A. (A),
90', 0 - 7, Carrizo F. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 and 10).

Neither of the teams could find their winning rhythm in recent games.

Libertad will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sportivo San Lorenzo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo San Lorenzo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
12	San Lorenzo	13	0	3	10	4:22	-18	3

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.5%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:1 ✺
06.02.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	3:3 ✺
02.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Paraguay
20.09.23	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
27.07.22	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	1:2

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