Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE D - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 13 August 2023, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Nacional de Patos		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	2.9
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.25	2.9	3.17
	2.15	2.8	3.2
	2.3	2.81	3.38
	2.25	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (3)	2.9 ↓ (3.05)	3.13 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional de Patos
40.1%

Draw
31.1%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
28.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29.9%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

29.5%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional de Patos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional de Patos's performance.

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferroviário Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional de Patos than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional de Patos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferroviário Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nacional de Patos - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Nacional de Patos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ferroviário is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional de Patos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional de Patos
Brazilian Serie D
06.08.23	Nacional de Patos - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	3:1 ✺
29.07.23	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Nacional de Patos	1:0 ✺
23.07.23	Potiguar - Nacional de Patos	0:0 ✺
16.07.23	Nacional de Patos - Iguatu	3:1 ✺
09.07.23	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLTWL
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Club Friendly
09.08.23	Pacajus - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
05.08.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Princesa do Solimões	3:0 ✺
31.07.23	Princesa do Solimões - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
22.07.23	Fluminense Piaui - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
16.07.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Cordino	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTWW

Nacional de Patos - Ferroviário Fortaleza

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Nacional de Patos - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Preview

Form

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