Match Info

J3 League - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Nara Club

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.40	2.15
	2.8	3.35	2.12	Watch
	2.93	3.7	2.23
	2.89	3.54	2.27	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.2
	2.85	3.72	2.23	Watch
	2.85	3.45	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.43)	3.51 ↑ (3.1)	2.19 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
32.2%

Draw
26.1%

Nara Club
41.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.9%

28.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

31%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Nara Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nara Club's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagano Parceiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nara Club than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nara Club, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nagano Parceiro - Nara Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Nakano K. (G) 26. Nakata S. 7. Ono Y. 13. Tsukegi Y. 3. Tomita K. 10. Yamanaka R. 22. Yoshida K. 40. Hasegawa Y. 8. Kondo T. 28. Fujikawa K. 18. Yoshizawa S.	96. Vito M. (G) 22. Ikoma K. 33. Sato H. 16. Okuda Y. 8. Yoshida A. 48. Kawanishi S. 10. Morita R. 11. Sato R. 9. Togashi Y. 54. Kawasaki S. 13. Ando R.
Substitutes
39. Ando K. 15. Higuchi K. 16. Ishii K. 14. Kutsuna K. 77. Morita D. 11. Shin K. 19. Shoji H. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 25. Tanaka K.	29. Ichimura S. 36. Ishii T. 6. Miyazaki I. 1. Miyazawa T. (G) 14. Mochizuki S. 99. Morimoto H. 2. Takahata K. 7. Tamura R. 40. Yoshimura Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Morita R. 🟨,
73', Ando R. ↓, Morimoto H. ↑,
73', Togashi Y. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
73', Kondo T. ↓, Higuchi K. ↑,
73', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Shoji H. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Mochizuki S. ⚽,
81', Sato R. ↓, Tamura R. ↑,
81', Ikoma K. ↓, Yoshimura Y. ↑,
86', Yamanaka R. ↓, Kutsuna K. ↑,
86', Yoshida K. ↓, Morita D. ↑,
86', Tomita K. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
90+2', Kawasaki S. ↓, Ishii T. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 11th and 6th in the Promotion - J3 League Promotion - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 1.

In recent outings, Nagano has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Nara Club is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Nagano has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:9 (averaging 0.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nagano against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:4 goals (averaging 0.7:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	23:21	2	23
11	Nagano	13	5	2	6	17:19	-2	17

Last Results with these Odds

Nagano Parceiro - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 36.93%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Nara Club - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.12%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Fukushima United - Nagano Parceiro	4:3 ✺
20.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Gifu	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Tochigi	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Mito HollyHock	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWTLT
- Nara Club
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Nara Club - Reilac Shiga	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Gainare Tottori - Nara Club	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nara Club - Gifu	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Nara Club	2:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Nara Club - Sagan Tosu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
18.10.25	Nara Club - Nagano Parceiro	2:0
31.05.25	Nagano Parceiro - Nara Club	1:0
14.09.24	Nagano Parceiro - Nara Club	1:1
03.03.24	Nara Club - Nagano Parceiro	1:1
26.08.23	Nara Club - Nagano Parceiro	2:0
19.03.23	Nagano Parceiro - Nara Club	0:3

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