Match Info

KENYA: Premier League - Round 23

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday


	Nairobi City Stars		Ulinzi Stars

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.9	2.49
	3.37	2.74	2.25
				Watch
	3.29	2.91	2.22
	2.85	2.9	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.5)	2.86 ↓ (3.2)	2.36 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi City Stars
29.5%

Draw
31.9%

Ulinzi Stars
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.1%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

28.8%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi City Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nairobi City Stars's form might have worsened.

Ulinzi Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi City Stars than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nairobi City Stars, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Etemesi ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nairobi City won 1.

Nairobi City is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ulinzi Stars is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ulinzi Stars could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Nairobi City won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:15 (average 0.8:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Nairobi City won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.5:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ulinzi Stars - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi City Stars
Kenyan Premier League
21.02.25	Talanta - Nairobi City Stars	1:1 ✺
14.02.25	Nairobi City Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:5 ✺
08.02.25	Bidco United - Nairobi City Stars	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Nairobi City Stars - AFC Leopards	0:1 ✺
26.01.25	Bandari - Nairobi City Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLTLL
- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
19.02.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Muranga Seal - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:0 ✺
31.01.25	Bidco United - Ulinzi Stars	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
22.12.24	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi City Stars	2:1
07.05.24	Nairobi City Stars - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
17.12.23	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi City Stars	1:2
07.05.23	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi City Stars	1:1
25.02.23	Nairobi City Stars - Ulinzi Stars	0:2
18.04.22	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi City Stars	0:1
10.04.22	Nairobi City Stars - Ulinzi Stars	0:0

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