Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday


	Ulinzi Stars		Kakamega Homeboyz

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.92	2.15
	3.37	2.95	2.18
	3.39	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.25
	3.48	2.88	2.14
	3.3	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.22)	2.93 ↓ (2.95)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
27.4%

Draw
30.9%

Kakamega Homeboyz
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

31%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.8%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Kakamega Homeboyz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kakamega Homeboyz than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Muchiri B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 1 - 1, Mutamba P. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 0.

Ulinzi Stars has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Homeboyz is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ulinzi Stars may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Homeboyz could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ulinzi Stars won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 0.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulinzi Stars won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Kakamega Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Kakamega Homeboyz - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
22.02.26	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Ulinzi Stars - Police FC	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Muranga Seal	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mathare United - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLL
- Kakamega Homeboyz
Kenyan Premier League
20.02.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Bidco United - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:4 ✺
31.01.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Mara Sugar	3:3 ✺
18.01.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Kariobangi Sharks	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Bandari - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
25.10.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Ulinzi Stars	3:1
09.02.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:0
14.12.24	Kakamega Homeboyz - Ulinzi Stars	1:1
10.03.24	Kakamega Homeboyz - Ulinzi Stars	2:0
26.11.23	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	0:1
08.03.23	Ulinzi Stars - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:0
11.12.22	Kakamega Homeboyz - Ulinzi Stars	1:1

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