Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday


	Nairobi United		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.88	3.65
	2.67	3.05	2.55
	3	2.83	2.47	Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.7
	2.09	2.84	3.69
	1.83	3	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.31)	2.88 ↓ (2.92)	3.4 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi United
40.6%

Draw
32.1%

Mara Sugar
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

31.4%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

29.9%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Nairobi United - Mara Sugar Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nairobi United will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Mara Sugar will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nairobi United: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', 1 - 0, Wangaya K. ⚽,
88', 1 - 1, Imbusia A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 13).

Nairobi United has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mara Sugar is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nairobi United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mara Sugar has had a series of away games.

Nairobi United could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nairobi United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nairobi United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
29.03.26	APS Bomet - Nairobi United	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Nairobi United - Ulinzi Stars	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	AFC Leopards - Nairobi United	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Sofapaka - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Nairobi United - Kenya CB	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLWT
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
28.03.26	Kenya CB - Mara Sugar	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Mara Sugar - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Bandari - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Mara Sugar - Sofapaka	3:1 ✺
26.02.26	Bidco United - Mara Sugar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
01.10.25	Mara Sugar - Nairobi United	0:1
Kenyan FKF Cup
01.06.25	Nairobi United - Mara Sugar	2:1 penalties
Kenyan Super League
02.06.24	Mara Sugar - Nairobi United	1:0
16.12.23	Nairobi United - Mara Sugar	0:2

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