Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday


	Tusker		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.48	3.45
	2.31	2.62	3.93
	2.54	2.4	3.55	Watch
	2.37	2.58	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.28)	2.52 ↓ (2.82)	3.66 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tusker
38.3%

Draw
36.5%

Mara Sugar
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

32.1%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

31%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Tusker - Mara Sugar Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tusker will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
88', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 11).

Tusker has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mara Sugar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mara Sugar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tusker might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tusker won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Tusker - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.81%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
18.04.26	Tusker - Sofapaka	0:0 ✺
14.04.26	Tusker - Gor Mahia	1:0 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
10.04.26	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	1:2 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
03.04.26	Police FC - Tusker	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	AFC Leopards - Tusker	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWLLL
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
18.04.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Mara Sugar	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Mara Sugar - Posta Rangers	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Nairobi United - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Kenya CB - Mara Sugar	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Mara Sugar - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1
06.04.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	1:1
27.11.24	Tusker - Mara Sugar	2:1

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